- Peace Garden: October Surprise...

October Surprise...

Thursday, September 28, 2006

Anthrax, Iran & bin Laden: Waiting for the October Surprise.

Presidential advisor Karl Rove has been touting his "October surprise," aimed at keeping Republicans in office.
While Rove will most certainly exploit the fear factor, the question remains if we'll let ourselves be fooled - yet again.
So perhaps Rove's surprise will involve some form of domestic bioweapons attack, handily foiled by Bush's superior intelligence capabilities. How intriguing that Project BioShield, a $5.6 billion farce aimed at protecting the American public after the anthrax attacks, has been getting a lot of flak recently. A little domestic scare might give the administration's pharmaceutical boondoggle more credibility.
A second possibility is that Rove plans to serve up bin Laden "dead or alive," as Bush had originally requested. Recent rumors of bin Laden's having succumbed to typhoid support the possibility, yet he was also reported to have died before the 2002 congressional elections. The very thought of eliminating bin Laden might score Republicans some easy votes, but it's hard to imagine he will be permanently bumped off until a new, equally scary bogeyman is made available.
The most terrifying prospect is that the October surprise will involve an attack on Iran, and all signs indicate the growing possibility. A US armada of war ships, including a nuclear aircraft carrier, is due to arrive off Iran's coast in the third week of October, and according to retired Air Force colonel Sam Gardiner, the US is already conducting preparatory military operations inside the country.
Rove may reason that a US attack on Tehran's alleged nuclear-weapons facilities would be enough to rally the public around Republicans come November, but it's a cataclysmic miscalculation. The Iranian military's Blow of Zolfaqar war games last month demonstrated that the country is armed and ready to fight, and Tehran's other options are just as devastating: activating Hezbollah, inciting further violence in Iraq and interrupting the world's oil supply.
The patent contradiction of waiting for a surprise aside, we've got to show more sophistication this time in preempting Rove's inevitable trick or treat. The stakes are just too high.
Wonder which surprise the oddsmakers are pushing. My money is on the Iranian adventure. Brings us closer to the END!

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