- Peace Garden: KHUZESTAN: THE FIRST FRONT IN THE WAR ON IRAN?

KHUZESTAN: THE FIRST FRONT IN THE WAR ON IRAN?

Sunday, February 05, 2006

ZNet , in November 2005, posted the following:

But the key to the future of Iran is in its southwest, in Khuzestan--with its oil fields, its shared ethnic-religious identity with Iraq, and its proximity to U.S. and British forces eager to secure final revenge for the ouster of the Shah. The Beirut Daily Star predicts that the "first step taken by an invading force would be to occupy Iran's oil-rich Khuzestan Province, securing the sensitive Straits of Hormuz and cutting off the Iranian military's oil supply, forcing it to depend on its limited stocks."
The defense website Globalsecurity.org even names this invasion strategy the "Khuzestan Gambit," astutely observing that the province "is the one large piece of flat Iranian terrain to the west of the Zagros Mountains. American heavy forces could swiftly occupy Khuzestan, and in doing so seize control of most of Iran's oil resources, and non-trivial portions of the country's water supply and electrical generating capacity."
In a "Khuzestan Gambit" strategy, U.S. and British forces aiding an Arab uprising would turn Khuzestan into a de facto autonomous protectorate of "Arabistan" or "Ahwaz," in order to take control of the country's oil-dependent economy. By holding the region as an economic "hostage," they could then dictate their terms to Tehran. Pentagon strategists' fanciful thinking may be that, without access to the country's oil wealth, the ruling clerics would be undermined and Iranian reformers would lead a new revolution.
Yet like previous strategies in Iraq, this one will also be sure to backfire, by destroying any chance of reform in Iran, and rallying "moderate" Iranians around their government. Even a limited intervention--for example, to halt an Iranian crackdown on Arab dissidents--could inspire Arab Gulf States to militarily assert their claims to islands long disputed with Iran. If Khuzestan officially or unofficially secedes, the move could set into motion the "Balkanization" of Iran, which would inevitably tear apart neighboring countries.
On top of all that, the Americans and British may simply lose a new war against Iran, just as they are losing the war in Iraq today. Iran's Revolutionary Guards are more formidable fighters than Saddam's Republican Guard. The Iranian military could launch a counterattack or effectively melt into an Iraq-style insurgency. If Tehran feels backed into a corner, it may desperately retaliate with exactly the strategy that Bush and Blair have accused it of -- backing attacks on the West and Israel, or deploying nuclear weapons. If their land and oil is being occupied anyways, what would Iranians have to lose?
Another assinine proposition. Though all wars are that.



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